Is the U.S. bond market finally starting to calm down?

Lately, there’s been a heightened pulse in economic circles. Talk is rife about interest rates, especially given the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive 18-month-long bid to undo the easy-money strategies initiated after the 2008 financial crisis.

While some bemoan the changes, those in the know, like Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone Group, appear unfazed. Schwarzman recently shared his enthusiasm about a senior secured debt investment he encountered, highlighting the robust 13% yield it promised.

For the discerning investor, such high yields, especially when backed by solid security, are a golden opportunity.

A Rollercoaster Ride for the U.S. Bond Market

It’s impossible to deny the seismic shifts in the bond market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, a financial lighthouse, has rocketed from a mere 0.5% during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic to an astounding 4.9%, marking its highest in 16 years.

In the same breath, 2022 saw global bonds plummeting, marking their worst performance since data records began. Historian Niall Ferguson made it abundantly clear when he observed that U.S. bond investors experienced their most harrowing year since 1871.

But let’s be brutally honest: What did people truly expect? Central banks globally had been strategically lowering interest rates, making them the lowest ever between 2009 and 2022.

Did anyone believe that there wouldn’t be any fiscal aftershocks from this? Or that once the Federal Reserve began its great unraveling from the chains of zero interest, it would be a smooth transition?

The Ghost of Financial Past

The landscape in 2022 painted a telling picture. The Federal Reserve’s assets ballooned to an astonishing $9tn, a substantial leap from its pre-2008 financial crisis figure. It was all part of a grand strategy.

The U.S. central bank took on the role of the ultimate buyer, absorbing corporate and government debt, thereby providing a crutch to Wall Street’s wavering financial institutes.

This process, affectionately termed “quantitative easing” by Ben Bernanke, had the desired effect of pushing bond prices to the sky while inversely dragging their yields down.

The motivation behind this? To reignite the borrowing enthusiasm in businesses and the general populace and mitigate the blows of the global recession. The succeeding Federal Reserve leaders, Janet Yellen and Jay Powell, stuck with this approach.

The idea was sound, at first. But soon, it became a double-edged sword, with traders and financial players developing an unhealthy dependency on this low-cost monetary regime.

And here’s the thing that boggles the mind. Who thought it was strategic to invest in high-yield bonds, aptly termed “junk bonds” because of the risks they carry, when the returns were a measly 4%?

It’s common knowledge that these bonds should offer a yield closer to 10%. So, it wasn’t exactly a stroke of genius to predict that bond yields would surge. In line with this prediction, junk bonds currently hover around a yield of 9.2%.

The market’s response to these shifts has been nothing short of dramatic. Consider Silicon Valley Bank’s recent failure. A deep dive reveals that the bank had stuffed its balance sheet with long-term bonds acquired at market peak using customer deposits. Not the best move.

Reality Checks and New Horizons

However, there’s a silver lining. We’re slowly transitioning back to an environment where the balance between risk and return in the bond market is more transparent.

This isn’t driven by bureaucratic mandates but by the raw, unfiltered mechanics of the market. In this landscape, riskier bonds will have their worth determined by genuine demand, rather than artificial inflations.

This shift, though painful, will ultimately benefit investors and the broader financial realm. Opportunities are on the horizon for those with a keen eye, as Schwarzman keenly points out. Let the market dictate its pace, and may the discerning investor prosper.

About E. J. McKay

E.J.McKay is a Shanghai-headquartered investment bank with a special focus on mergers & acquisitions. We are one of the most long standing independent investment banks in China, with core business of mergers & acquisitions and financing advisory.